
Politics and Markets Collide: Exec Orders, Tariffs, Tik-Tok and DeepSeek
Steve Hiscock:
Hello to everyone listening to our second podcast by SG Hiscock and Company, The Active Investor with SGH. In today’s podcast, we’re going to be looking at President Trump’s first week and what a week it’s been. We’re also going to look at what’s likely to happen in the future.
We are recording this on the 29th of January, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia.
Please read the disclaimer in the podcast description.
My name is Stephen Hiscock. I’m one of the founders of SGH and the chair of the board of SGH. Joining me today is our Chief Investment Officer, Rob Hogg.
Welcome back, Rob. Hello.
Rob Hogg:
Thanks, Steve. Thanks. Nice to be back. How are you?
Steve Hiscock
Very well, thank you. Had a good summer, so ready for everything.
Steve Hiscock:
Okay, Rob, since President Trump took power, he’s been incredibly busy, as you know, signing multitudes of executive orders, immigration, climate, World Health Organization, diversity, Tik Tok, participants in the Capitol riot, other pardons, government reforms, reversing some policies, economic measures, and so forth.
I mean, it has been an incredibly busy week. Before we start though, just for clarification, what exactly is an executive order and how does it differ from laws passed in the house?
Rob Hogg:
Yes, Steve. It is a term we’ve been using an awful lot and we’ve certainly seen that President Trump has been prolific really with his executive orders.
So what are they? Well, an executive order is a written order issued by the President to the Government which does not require congressional approval. So orders can range across a whole different types of activities, reversals of policy, and Trump’s done quite a bit of that so far, and we’ll talk about that in just a moment.
But, you can also, we’ve seen in the past, executive orders for quite ordinary business. So, for example, President Barack Obama instructions for a half day closure of government departments on Christmas Eve in 2015. That was issued via executive order, but of a much more ordinary business sort of a nature.
So the authority for issuing these ordersis rooted in Article 2 of the US Constitution, which states the executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. So why do presidents issue them? Well, as we were talking about just before, sometimes reversal of policy, sometimes ordinary business, but historically they’ve been used during wartime or to avert a domestic crisis.
So in 1942, President Roosevelt signed an executive order that led to the creation of detention centres for about 120, 000 Japanese Americans and then 10 years later, Harry Truman issued an order that put the steel industry under the control of the government in an attempt to avoid a strike.
Steve Hiscock:
So the president can put in these executive orders or sign them, how can you overturn them, or can they be overturned?
Rob Hogg:
Well, look, they can certainly be challenged. So an executive order has to work within the confines of the law with, in theory, each one having to be reviewed by the Office of Legal Counsel for form and legality. That doesn’t always happen. Uh, an order can be deemed to stray outside the boundaries of what is acceptable and it can be subject to legal review.
And as we were just saying, it’s become practice in the last three presidencies for the incoming president to overturn previous executive orders.
Congress can also pass a law to override an executive order, but a president still has a veto over that law.
Steve Hiscock:
I guess that makes them politically sensitive, right?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, exactly. Because a president can use them to bypass approval from Congress.
Steve Hiscock:
Yeah. Okay. So Trump has already passed a lot of executive orders, and certainly he did as well in the first term from memory, but, has he done the most? Is he unprecedented in the amount of executive orders that he’s issued?
Rob Hogg:
Well, perhaps he is, if we annualise, if you like, the number that he’s done already. But, as you were just saying, he’s done them before, back in his prior, presidential term. He issued 220 executive orders. Biden, in his term, issued 162.
But he’s up against some pretty big numbers, for example, Franklin Roosevelt issued the most, 3,721 during his years in office, while Woodrow Wilson and Calvin Coolidge signed 1,800 and 1,200 respectively.
But perhaps we’ll find that Trump’s run rate is higher and he may well end up, potentially end up with even more. But as I say last, his last term, 220 and Biden in his presidency, 160.
Steve Hiscock:
Okay. He’s got some way to go,
Rob Hogg:
He has some way to go.
Steve Hiscock:
Alright. So a president can also undo their predecessors orders. Can we talk about that? Because he’s, he’s already done some, yeah?
Rob Hogg:
He has indeed. He’s reversed some of Biden’s policies via executive order. So this whole America First, he’s announced he’s pausing foreign aid, saying that he wants a review of foreign assistance programs, part of the new America First foreign policy.
On Cuba, he wants to reverse Biden’s recent decision to remove Cuba from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Uh, and far, as far as regulation is concerned, he’s issued another order directing federal agencies to refrain from issuing any new regulations.
And on unvaccinated federal workers, he’s revoked a mandate that federal workers must be vaccinated with the COVID vaccine.
And he’s also promised to reinstate the 8,000 military service members who were discharged due to the Pentagon’s COVID vaccine mandate with full pay.
Steve Hiscock:
Wow. Okay. So that’s some of the reversals. Can we now talk about some of the other orders he’s signed, starting firstly, Rob, with immigration, which has been I guess a key part of his platform the whole way along.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, that, that’s absolutely right. All the way through his, his campaign, immigration was amongst the top, what, one, two, three most important issues in his mind that he was speaking about. So, to kick off here – repel, repatriate and remove. So he’s issued an order demanding that the government suspends the physical entry of aliens engaged in invasion of the United States through the southern border. Their words.
And this calls for officials to immediately repel, repatriate and remove. those individuals. And he’s tied this up with what he’s described as a national emergency, proclaiming that America’s sovereignty is under attack, and saying that that national emergency allows him to free up more funding to reinforce the border with Mexico.
So a lot of the initial orders related to immigration, and in particular, the southern border, and what this new administration will do in that regard.
Steve Hiscock:
So he really feels like he’s got a mandate to do this, because it was such an important part of the platform. The other part of the platform that he was really talking often about was climate.
Can you talk through some of the measures he’s, he’s done so far?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, so this is a case where he’s reversed a policy. So he’s signed off on withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. Again, of course, I’m most sure people remember he did that. in his first presidency. I understand that’ll have to take a year or so before it actually happens, but he’s previously withdrew in 2017. And then Biden re entered when he became president.
He’s declared a national energy emergency and this is tied up with his often used phrase of “drill, baby, drill” and drilling for more fossil fuels.
He’s spoken of and signed to Alaskan Fuel, signing an executive order titled Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential and pledging to unlock oil, gas and other natural resources from Alaska. He’s ended the Green New Deal, which was a series of Biden measures that were aimed at boosting green jobs, regulating the fossil fuel industry and limiting pollution.
So in particular, he’s ordered agencies to halt funds appropriated through two laws, being the Inflation Reduction Act and another law on infrastructure and jobs.
Steve Hiscock:
And then The World Health Organization, he’s also signed an executive order.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, yes he has. He’s signed an order to begin the process of withdrawing the US from the WHO.
And that, again, would, a bit like Paris, would mark the second time that he’s ordered the US to be pulled from a global institution.
Steve Hiscock:
Right. I mean, people are disappointed, but none of this is a surprise, really. I guess another area where he’s creating a little bit of controversy is on the diversity and gender side. So can you just go through some of the key measures there that he’s done?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, so the President Trump’s declared that the US will only recognise two sexes, male and female. And that obviously has significant implications. Diversity, equity, and inclusion, he signed another executive order to shut down the offices of DEI programs within the federal government with immediate effect.
Steve Hiscock:
Wow. Okay. And then TikTok as well. He’s that that’s been all over the place that was shut down and then he’s postponed the shutdown.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah. I’m sure a lot of people will remember that. TikTok seemed to be in the process of being shut down, just before the inauguration, but Trump has subsequently signed a decree postponing by 75 days the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the US.
The expectation here is that, part of ByteDance will be carved off to an American owner, in coming days.
Steve Hiscock:
Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how that goes. Obviously, some of the other measures he’s talked about or already signed, he’s pardoned the hundreds that stormed the US Capitol in the 2021 Capitol riot. 1,600 supporters, I believe, which is an extraordinary measure.
Declassifying, uh, secret documents relative to the assassination of, uh, JFK and renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. He’s certainly been busy on that side. Clearly, though, if we talk about markets, a really big area of concern for the markets has been the tariffs, what they are, when they’ll be introduced, who they’re going to target.
The three most frequently mentioned Canada, Mexico and China. Where are we at with tariffs and have any been implemented yet?
Rob Hogg:
Well look, it’s, it is the proverbial Moving feast when it comes to tariffs. There’s a lot of volatility but I think it’s probably fair to say that so far, and it’s only been a couple of weeks, of course, since inauguration, but in the first couple of weeks anyway, that tariffs proposed have not been quite as extreme as some had feared.
So, for example, he’s spoken about tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, starting from February, the 1st. Perhaps that was more hawkish than expected, but what he said in regard to China has been a deal more conciliatory, I think, than had been expected and there’s certainly nothing concrete at that point.
Having said all that. There is volatility. So just over the last weekend, we’ve seen that Colombia was threatened with tariffs. There was a dispute between the presidents, Trump and Petro, with Trump ordering 25 percent tariffs. The Colombians backed down, although fair to say that for the Americans, they could have potentially lost 20 percent of their coffee supply and a large supply of their fresh cut flower supply. So, these things of course do cut both ways.
Canada has avoided tariffs for now but it seems, as we all expected, that tariffs will be used, or certainly spoken of as a very, very significant, bargaining strategy by the President.
But so far on balance are less than feared, I think is the best way to think about them.
Steve Hiscock:
Yeah, it’s interesting, isn’t it? I mean, if you think about the coffee tariff, I mean, there is, it would be impossible for that not to feed its way through to inflation, right? I mean, it has to. So, uh, it’s, I I just wonder if he’s becoming a little bit more sanguine about the inflationary effects of some of his tariffs?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, that, that’s quite possible and certainly inflation was a very, very significant issue during, during the whole presidential election campaign.
Steve Hiscock:
Mm, exactly. So, just in terms of market reactions to all these orders, these multitudes of orders, a lot of them have been well telegraphed, so I guess a lot’s been built in, but can you talk about what the markets have done just since he’s taken office?
Rob Hogg:
Well, look, his first week in office was less volatile than some had feared. And again, it’s really this whole tariff story. Equities have generally responded positively. And look, up until the last couple of days, and we’ll come back to that implied volatility had fallen, not just in equities, but across most asset classes.
For example, in bonds, where we saw during the course of 2024, a huge amount of volatility from month to month. If we look at where yields are globally, the US and globally, they haven’t really moved an awful lot, over the course of January to date. It’s only about 10 basis points, or thereabouts.
And I think broadly we’ve seen that there’s, there’s been less macro disruption than was initially expected. So equities as measured by the S&P500 were up around 2 percent during the first week of President Trump’s second term, registering a new high. Economic growth optimism has been one of the clearest and most persistent Trump trades within equities following the election day.
And if we look at US equity performance so far this year, calendar year to date, the Dow’s up around 5.5 percent, the S&P around 3 percent, NASDAQ lagging at 2 percent, and we’ll come back to that in a moment, and smaller caps in the US around two 2.5 percent.
So broadly speaking, positive, as we were saying, bonds relatively little changed. Animal spirits do seem to have been boosted. We’ve seen that impacted, or reflected rather, in surveys, like the small business survey. And we can see that in equities as well, where firms with a higher revenue exposure to small and mid-sized businesses have done relatively well. And cyclicals have done relatively well as well.
So broadly speaking, it’s been an equity positive sort of background and equities so far this year and following on from the election and inauguration have generally embraced the new administration. But I think a lot of that is down to the fact that the whole tariff story’s not, to date, been as volatile as negative has feared.
Steve Hiscock:
So there’s, I mean, there’s obviously, well, many types of tariffs, but I mean, the sort of tariffs he’s been talking about are tariffs where there’s an economic imperative to do it.
But, you know, increasingly, and you mentioned Colombia, there’s the risk of retaliatory, punitive, or even universal tariffs. Do you think the markets price those?
Rob Hogg:
Look, not, yeah, well, yes, not easy to discern. But it seems broadly speaking there’s been and look, I guess I look at European equity performance here because European markets really, really suffered through October into November as the probability of Trump’s reelection seem to be rising. But if we look at European equities this year, they’ve actually outperformed the US, not by a lot, but across Europe we see numbers of 6 to 7 percent, so that’s better than the Dow, which is the best performing of the US indices.
So that sort of suggests that the broader base of tariffs, the broad global tariff story has been revised a bit lower in terms of its potential impact. But we do still see in a more bilateral sense that say stocks with supply chains in China, they seem to have underperformed. So the China story, and indeed if we look at Asian equity markets, they’ve done relatively poorly. So it’s more the targets and very, very particular countries like China. where the fears seem to have been more so priced.
There seems to have been somewhat of a relief, if you like, across European markets.
If we look just at some of the other policies, so deregulation in the US, this is regarded as a significant positive for banks and the energy stocks, but a lot of that premium, that positive has dissipated.
And in terms of cost cutting, because I know we’ll come to this in a moment, but stocks potentially exposed to government spending cuts, they’ve, look, they’ve underperformed a little bit. So some of that risk has, has begun to be priced in.
Steve Hiscock:
It’s, it’s interesting on the, on the European side, Robert. I mean, the, the problem that Europe is facing is not just the prospect of tariffs, but also the fact that their economies are slowing anyway, right? So, if there’s a 6 percent bounce this year, which is is pretty strong, really, it’s hard to see that continuing until there, you know, there’s prospects for the sign of a turnaround in the economy, right?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, no, that’s absolutely
right. And look, time and time again we do see that if you were to compare just the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve and to ask which of those central banks tends to be more growth supportive, it wouldn’t be the ECB that you would be suggesting. Perhaps this is the year they surprise us…
Steve Hiscock:
May be, but they’re more focused on inflation.
Rob Hogg:
They are. They are very much so. And, and their economies, broadly speaking, as you say, have been weakening, through last year, and into 2025 as well.
Steve Hiscock:
All right. Terrific, Rob. So, just moving on to some of the government reforms. Can you just give us some details about the government reforms? He’s made a few changes here and some of them are quite interesting.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, so there’s a few here. And look, we really need to start with Elon Musk and, his, uh, his DOGE, his Department of Government Efficiency. So that’s a new advisory body on cutting government costs led by Musk. And Trump has said that he’ll get an office for that, and I think he’s spoken about 20 employees, it might take a few more than that, perhaps, but, that, that is, that is certainly a way that he’s differentiated himself, and a clear example of potential government reform.
But I imagine this is something much, much more difficult to do than say. So we have DOGE, we have a freeze on federal hiring, Trump has ordered halts on new federal hiring, except within the military and a couple of other categories. Uh, that’s more so until the administration’s completely in control over the government.
And one of the other things, pretty topical, federal employees returning to the office. Uh, so President Trump signed a memorandum mandating that federal workers must work in the office and they’re not allowed to work from home.
Uh, so that’s, uh, just a couple of the reforms announced today.
Steve Hiscock:
Yeah, and that’ll, that’ll obviously be a huge change, because for the, you know, the last four years, it’s been the opposite. There’ll certainly be some resistance to that, one would have thought.
Rob Hogg:
You would, you would imagine, yeah.
Steve Hiscock:
So, just talking looking at the economy now, Rob, there’s been several measures regarding the economy which you’ve mentioned some of them. Look, of particular interest in recent days is the development of AI, artificial intelligence and Trump’s determination to maintain global leadership. Can we talk about those aspects, starting with the economy?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, so let’s talk about inflation first. So, Trump signed a directive asking every US federal department and agencies who address the cost of living.
Now this is the directive rather than the executive order as such, but it asks agencies to look at lowering the costs of housing, healthcare and key household items, groceries and fuel. And look, he’s asked for a report in 30 days. So you can only begin to imagine the incredible scrambling that must be taking place as we speak.
But look, into, into issues like AI and digital financial technology. He signed a directive called the Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence. So he’s looking, as we know, to make the US the global leader in AI. So I imagine a lot of the listeners will have heard about Stargate, which is a proposed $500bn project aimed at creating massive AI data centers in the US amongst other things.
He’s also signed an executive order to regulate and promote the crypto industry and to explore the creation of digital assets.
Steve Hiscock:
And he has issued his own coin, as Melania has too, so there’s absolutely no conflict there. Um, so look, I know it’s early days, but, uh, in the, in the papers and obviously overnight in Bloomberg and so forth, there’s been lots of talk about the Chinese startup DeepSeek and what implications it might have for NVIDIA and all the others involved in this space, but not only just the chip makers, um, there’s so many parts to this whole industry including data centers and so on.
Can you, can you talk a little bit about what’s happened the last couple of days?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, yeah, look absolutely, because it’s causing a huge amount of volatility and I think probably more than anything else, one of the issues we spoke about in our podcast at the start of the year, so a couple of weeks ago, was this whole idea of US exceptionalism. And it’s things like DeepSeek which have the potential really question some of that US exceptionalism. And the reason for that is that this really potentially questions the dominance of the so called Magnificent Seven, which just interestingly peaked around the time of the US election.
So DeepSeek, as I imagine many of the listeners will know, it’s a two year old China based startup. It’s an artificial intelligence R&D venture. It’s fully funded and operating under a Chinese quant fund called High-Flyer. And High-Flyer itself was started in 2015 by a bunch of Uni friends to use machine learning to trade equities. And then in 2023 they spun off this independent research arm to use open source models to create extremely efficient AI models.
So if you look at the market reaction, the narrative that’s really concerning people is that DeepSeek has delivered, allegedly, performance topping models really on a shoestring budget.
Steve Hiscock:
And Rob, what would that compare to roughly, uh, for Open AI was in the hundreds of millions, I think.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, I think so. Whereas DeepSeeker is suggesting 6 million. So really, it’s calling into question just how much expenditure, cap ex, there will need to be in terms of computing power, in terms of energy and electricity requirements.
I guess the issue for the market is that if this new DeepSeek progression means there’s less requirement for computing power, then perhaps there is also for the infrastructure and other cap ex requirements that were previously assumed.
There is, however, something described as Jevons Paradox and we’ve seen this over the centuries in fact. Basically that means that if indeed, what DeepSeek is talking about and has achieved means that there’s less computing requirement and, and everything that goes with that, that perhaps opens the door for more and more and more people than would otherwise have been the case, to build apps and to innovate on these models, which actually ultimately ends up boosting our cap ex requirements. But if you look at market reaction, so we’ve had two nights of, in the US, of reaction. So the first night we saw very, very negative performances, across the tech spectrum, particularly NVIDIA. Overnight we’ve seen a bit of a bounce back in NVIDIA and similar, companies, semis, for example.
But what, what seems to be slightly more clear is that power generation related stocks have really bounced only a tiny bit and utilities remained down. So far, the market seems to have grabbed onto the issue that perhaps we do need less in terms of cap ex requirements because of what DeepSeek seems to have been able to achieve.
But it’s still very, very early days, a lot of validation and understanding really needs to come about.
Steve Hiscock:
And that’s principally why we’ve made sure that everyone knows we’re doing this on the 29th of January, because I’m sure within a week everything will be completely different. I mean, look, it’s interesting though, Rob, I mean, the average, the average international equity fund has been underweight. There’s been a lot of individual holders that are overweight NVIDIA. But the average equity fund has really struggled to justify the valuation that these magnificent seven stocks trade on. And it’s just interesting seeing the market reaction to some news that came pretty much out of left field just how sensitive these stocks are to a change in growth aspiration.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, that’s exactly right. We spoke about the second derivative a couple of weeks ago, and that’s the key. If you’ve got a high growth, high PE stock, and it becomes a slightly slower growing, albeit still growing, stock that can have very significant implications for the pricing.
Steve Hiscock:
And one, one can’t help feeling that, okay, this is one, the implication, if you only have to spend, if you can only spend six million US dollars to, to, to do this thing, then the implication is that within five years there’s going to be literally hundreds and hundreds of these things around available and, and cheapening and that’s a good thing, right?
You could argue this is a great thing for the global economy because it is possibly helping to improve productivity long term, but also it’s giving people alternatives to perhaps an increasingly monopolistic offering and that that allows the world to be more productive and hopefully if we can do it in a lower energy environment, that’s also good.
Rob Hogg:
Yeah.
Steve Hiscock:
Because that was one of the worries, wasn’t it?
Rob Hogg:
It certainly was. So, on balance, and this is perhaps where the bond market’s a bit of a guide, yields, although they rose fractionally last night, they’re still lower than they were on Friday. So that disinflationary impulse that comes out of everything you were saying about productivity improvements and, and the broader availability of the technology and the modelling.
Steve Hiscock:
So, yes, it’s interesting with the the emergence of DeepSeek, it’s going to be, I really think it is going to be instructive just seeing the difference in power consumption between the new emerging technologies and, you know, what’s now potentially going to be regarded as old technology, even though it’s only relatively young. But just the fact that they use approximately one eighth the number of chips, the computing power that, allegedly, DeepSeek uses is well less than 10 percent of the equivalent AI that’s currently available in, say, the US.
These are really good things for inflation long term, so, and obviously great as a planet to have, things that significantly reduce our power consumption.
So just on inflation, Rob, moving, I know, We’re talking predominantly about President Trump, but today the Australian CPI has just come out, literally as we’ve been speaking. Do you want to briefly talk to that and give us your first insights?
Rob Hogg:
Yeah, yeah, so literally as we have been speaking, CPI has come out, and look, I think it’s come in fractionally, fractionally lower than expected. And initial, so the first 10-15 minute market reaction has been positive, which means that the market’s expectations in regard to the likelihood of a Feb rate cut are starting to rise.
Now before the CPI news we were really looking at a rate cut not being fully priced until April, that probability is likely to increase and move forward to Feb. So I think bottom line is the February expectation will rise. It was already around 75%. That might rise a little bit further.
Some of the market will regard this as the smoking gun, the trim mean at just 0.5 percent for the quarter, or 3.2 for the year. And the weighted median, similarly 0.5 and 3.4 for the year, some might regard that as a smoking gun, it’s still outside the RBA’s target band. But the headline CPI just 0.2 and right in the middle pretty much of the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3%.
So of course what happens here is extremely important because, one of the key elements looking out for 2025 will be just how much interest rate relief there does end up being. A number of indicators at the end of 2024 were becoming more positive, so more expectation related, survey related stuff, consumer confidence, corporate sentiment, so on and so forth, were showing signs of having bottomed out and perhaps improving.
Clearly, lower rate cuts, uh, for the best of reasons, because of lower inflation pressures would, would, would be positive as well. Inflation pressures had been easing, wages growth had been easing, and as I say after this morning’s numbers, the probability of that rate cut in February has increased a little bit further again.
Now look beyond that, the RBA Feb meeting, we’ve got the federal election. There’s a deadline of May 17 as the last date, so that will obviously be critical and how that turns out. A lot more uncertainty I think about the outcome there.
But of course relating back to what we’ve been speaking about through most of the podcast, so tariffs, Trump etc etc, trade friction, and how Australia will be impacted by any potential tariffs that the US might place on China, but as we were talking about, uh, earlier in the month, of course, what the Chinese do will be equally important.
So, that could indeed turn out to be somewhat positive if the tariffs are less than expected, and the Chinese policy response is more than expected, that could be positive, uh, for Australia, compared to current expectations.
Steve Hiscock:
Right. And yes, as we’ve talked about a number of times, it’s the change in the second derivative that’s important for markets.
So Rob, it’s been a busy first week of President Trump’s second presidency. I know reporting season’s coming up, so I know you and the team are very busy at the moment preparing for that. So I look forward to catching up with you at the end or somewhere through reporting season, just getting an update there.
So thank you very much, Rob.
That brings us to the end of today’s podcast. We looked at what President Trump has done. We’ve looked forward to what he might do in the future.
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